Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros
All Baltimore Orioles predictions · All Houston Astros predictions
MLB · Friday, July 17, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 3-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| BetRivers | -103 | -112 |
| DraftKings | -103 | -117 |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Orioles | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +160 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +159 | +1.5 -194 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -182 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +175 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -122 | 8.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Baltimore Orioles | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.0% | 52.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.