Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros

MLB · Friday, July 17, 2026 · 8:11 PM

The model's call

Houston Astros to win

Model confidence 51.1%

Books consensus 51.1%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Baltimore Orioles	Houston Astros
BetMGM	-105	-115
BetRivers	-104	-113
DraftKings	-103	-117
ESPN BET	-105	-115
Fanatics	-105	-115
FanDuel	-104	-112
Hard Rock Bet	-105	-115
Caesars	-105	-115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Baltimore Orioles	Houston Astros
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	48.9%	51.1%
Best book price incl. vig	50.7%	52.8%
Polymarket contract price	48.5%	51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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