The board — Saturday, October 3, 2026
Every game on today's slate: the model's favorite, its confidence, the best price across the books, and the prediction markets' contract price — amber when the contract costs less than the books' own fair value, which is a real disagreement rather than the house's cut. (Contracts carry fees and tie up your money until settlement, so amber is a prompt to look, not a free lunch.) Under each confidence figure is what that price needs to break even — bet it all season and you'd have to win that often just to end level. Most days the price asks for more than the model gives, and that gap is the house's cut. Every call gets graded here when games go final.
MLB 4 games
| Time | Game | Model favorite | Confidence | Best line | Markets | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:01 PM | Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 58.3% needs 60.0% | -150 ESPN BET | 57¢ Polymarket | scheduled |
| 4:00 PM | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 66.4% needs 67.2% | -205 BetRivers | 67¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 6:31 PM | New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.2% needs 56.5% | -130 Fanatics | 56¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 8:30 PM | San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 64.7% needs 66.7% | -200 Fanatics | 64¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
NHL 13 games
| Time | Game | Model favorite | Confidence | Best line | Markets | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:10 PM | Chicago Blackhawks @ Buffalo Sabres | Buffalo Sabres | 66.8% needs 68.3% | -215 ESPN BET | 68¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:10 PM | Montréal Canadiens @ Pittsburgh Penguins | Montréal Canadiens | 53.5% needs 55.6% | -125 Hard Rock Bet | 54¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:10 PM | Washington Capitals @ Tampa Bay Lightning | Tampa Bay Lightning | 59.2% needs 60.8% | -155 ESPN BET | 58¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:10 PM | Carolina Hurricanes @ Philadelphia Flyers | Carolina Hurricanes | 54.0% needs 55.6% | -125 DraftKings | 55¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:10 PM | Utah Mammoth @ Columbus Blue Jackets | Columbus Blue Jackets | 50.0% needs 51.0% | -104 BetRivers | 50¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:10 PM | Seattle Kraken @ Edmonton Oilers | Edmonton Oilers | 64.5% needs 65.8% | -192 DraftKings | 65¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:10 PM | Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs | Toronto Maple Leafs | 52.2% needs 54.1% | -118 FanDuel | 52¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:40 PM | New Jersey Devils @ New York Islanders | New Jersey Devils | 54.3% needs 55.4% | -124 Caesars | 54¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 8:10 PM | Boston Bruins @ Minnesota Wild | Minnesota Wild | 62.3% needs 64.3% | -180 DraftKings | 63¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 8:10 PM | Dallas Stars @ Nashville Predators | Dallas Stars | 54.3% needs 55.6% | -125 BetRivers | 56¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 9:10 PM | St Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche | Colorado Avalanche | 71.8% needs 74.7% | -295 Caesars | 72¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 10:10 PM | Calgary Flames @ Vancouver Canucks | Calgary Flames | 50.0% needs 51.0% | -104 FanDuel | 48¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 10:10 PM | Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks | San Jose Sharks | 51.7% needs 53.5% | -115 Fanatics | 52¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
Want the full history? The record — every call we've ever published, graded automatically.