The board — Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Every game on today's slate: the model's favorite, its confidence, the best price across the books, and the prediction markets' contract price — amber when the market beats every book. Under each confidence figure is what that price needs to break even — bet it all season and you'd have to win that often just to end level. Most days the price asks for more than the model gives, and that gap is the house's cut. Every call gets graded here when games go final.
MLB 15 games
| Time | Game | Model favorite | Confidence | Best line | Markets | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:36 PM | New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 51.0% needs 51.5% | -106 FanDuel | 50¢ Polymarket | scheduled |
| 6:41 PM | St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals | 52.2% needs 52.8% | -112 FanDuel | 52¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 6:41 PM | San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.6% needs 64.9% | -185 Hard Rock Bet | 64¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 6:41 PM | Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.0% needs 59.2% | -145 Hard Rock Bet | 58¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 6:41 PM | Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.4% needs 55.8% | -126 FanDuel | 56¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 6:41 PM | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 66.6% needs 67.7% | -210 FanDuel | 66¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:11 PM | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 61.0% needs 60.8% | -155 BetRivers | 62¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:11 PM | San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | San Diego Padres | 52.6% needs 53.5% | -115 Hard Rock Bet | 52¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:41 PM | Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 61.3% needs 62.3% | -165 Hard Rock Bet | 62¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:41 PM | Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 59.8% needs 60.8% | -155 Caesars | 60¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 7:41 PM | Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Atlanta Braves | 57.5% needs 58.3% | -140 FanDuel | 57¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 8:06 PM | Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 56.9% needs 57.4% | -135 Caesars | 57¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 8:06 PM | Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 61.5% needs 62.3% | -165 Hard Rock Bet | — | scheduled |
| 8:11 PM | Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 60.5% needs 61.1% | -157 Caesars | 60¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
| 8:41 PM | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Los Angeles Dodgers | 64.7% needs 65.5% | -190 Hard Rock Bet | 64¢ Kalshi | scheduled |
The model calls preseason football the same way it calls everything else, and now you can check it. But starters play a series and the result turns on third-stringers, so none of this enters the record, the hit rate, or any published number — including the tally below.
| Date | Game | Called | Confidence | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks NFL preseason | Seattle Seahawks | 54.7% | 17-7 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens NFL preseason | Philadelphia Eagles | 62.1% | 7-24 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | Los Angeles Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs NFL preseason | Kansas City Chiefs | 54.1% | 20-12 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints NFL preseason | New Orleans Saints | 58.1% | 24-20 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills NFL preseason | Buffalo Bills | 59.3% | 14-29 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-15 | Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears NFL preseason | Cleveland Browns | 57.3% | 10-34 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants NFL preseason | Minnesota Vikings | 52.2% | 13-10 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders NFL preseason | Miami Dolphins | 61.2% | 7-20 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-14 | Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons NFL preseason | Denver Broncos | 60.2% | 27-7 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets NFL preseason | New York Jets | 66.6% | 24-16 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers NFL preseason | Tennessee Titans | 71.8% | 19-13 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-13 | Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans NFL preseason | Houston Texans | 51.0% | 27-7 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders NFL preseason | Las Vegas Raiders | 60.0% | 27-14 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals NFL preseason | Cincinnati Bengals | 71.0% | 14-16 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-13 | Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers NFL preseason | Green Bay Packers | 58.3% | 9-28 | ✗ |
| 2026-08-06 | Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals NFL preseason | Carolina Panthers | 54.2% | 33-30 | ✓ |
6–10 across 16 exhibition games, 37.5%. Read it for fun, not as evidence — a preseason sample is small, the lineups are not the ones that play in September, and we would not publish this number as a claim about anything.
Want the full history? The record — every call we've ever published, graded automatically.