St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB · Friday, July 17, 2026 · 9:41 PM

The model's call

St. Louis Cardinals to win

Model confidence 50.8%

Books consensus 50.8%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	St. Louis Cardinals	Arizona Diamondbacks
BetMGM	-115	-105
BetRivers	-107	-110
DraftKings	-112	-107
ESPN BET	-115	-105
Fanatics	-115	-105
FanDuel	-110	-106
Hard Rock Bet	-110	-110
Caesars	-115	-105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	St. Louis Cardinals	Arizona Diamondbacks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	50.8%	49.2%
Best book price incl. vig	51.7%	51.2%
Polymarket contract price	50.5%	49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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