New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 4:06 PM

The model's call

Philadelphia Phillies to win

Model confidence 59.4%

Books consensus 59.4%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	New York Mets	Philadelphia Phillies
DraftKings	+135	-163
Fanatics	+135	-165
FanDuel	+138	-164
Caesars	+135	-160

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	New York Mets	Philadelphia Phillies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	40.6%	59.4%
Best book price incl. vig	42.0%	61.5%
Polymarket contract price	40.0%	60.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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