New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 3:06 PM · Final: 1-6
The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 60.9%
Books consensus 60.9%
Result Philadelphia Phillies won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +145 | -170 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.8% | 63.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.0% | 61.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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