New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
All New York Mets predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 3:06 PM · Final: 1-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +145 | -170 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mets | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.8% | 63.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.0% | 61.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.