Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros

MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 4:11 PM

The model's call

Baltimore Orioles to win

Model confidence 50.0%

Books consensus 50.0%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Baltimore Orioles	Houston Astros
DraftKings	-110	-110
Fanatics	-110	-110
FanDuel	-104	-112
Caesars	-110	-110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Baltimore Orioles	Houston Astros
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	50.0%	50.0%
Best book price incl. vig	51.0%	52.4%
Polymarket contract price	48.5%	51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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