San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners
MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 8:09 PM · Final: 3-4
The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 59.4%
Books consensus 59.4%
Result Seattle Mariners won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +135 | -155 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 42.6% | 60.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 41.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 40.5% | 60.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.