San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners
All San Francisco Giants predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions
MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 8:09 PM · Final: 3-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +135 | -155 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Giants | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -130 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 42.6% | 60.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 41.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 40.5% | 60.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.