San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners

MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 8:09 PM

The model's call

Seattle Mariners to win

Model confidence 59.2%

Books consensus 59.2%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	San Francisco Giants	Seattle Mariners
BetMGM	+135	-160
BetRivers	+138	-157
DraftKings	+134	-162
ESPN BET	+135	-155
Fanatics	+135	-165
FanDuel	+134	-158
Hard Rock Bet	+140	-165
Caesars	+143	-170

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	San Francisco Giants	Seattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	40.8%	59.2%
Best book price incl. vig	41.2%	60.8%
Kalshi contract price	41.5%	58.5%
Polymarket contract price	40.5%	59.5%
Markets average	41.0%	59.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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