Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

MLB · Sunday, July 19, 2026 · 12:16 PM

The model's call

Chicago White Sox to win

Model confidence 51.1%

Books consensus 51.1%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Chicago White Sox	Toronto Blue Jays
BetMGM	-115	-105
BetRivers	-117	+100
DraftKings	-114	-105
Fanatics	-115	-105
FanDuel	-118	+100
Hard Rock Bet	-115	-105
Caesars	-115	-105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Chicago White Sox	Toronto Blue Jays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	51.1%	48.9%
Best book price incl. vig	53.3%	50.0%
Kalshi contract price	51.5%	48.5%
Polymarket contract price	50.5%	49.5%
Markets average	51.0%	49.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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