New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

MLB · Sunday, July 19, 2026 · 1:36 PM

The model's call

New York Mets to win

Model confidence 54.3%

Books consensus 54.3%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	New York Mets	Philadelphia Phillies
BetMGM	-135	+110
BetRivers	-132	+114
DraftKings	-130	+108
Fanatics	-130	+110
FanDuel	-134	+114
Hard Rock Bet	-130	+105
Caesars	-130	+110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	New York Mets	Philadelphia Phillies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	54.3%	45.7%
Best book price incl. vig	56.5%	46.7%
Kalshi contract price	53.5%	45.5%
Polymarket contract price	53.5%	46.5%
Markets average	53.5%	46.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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