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Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros

MLB · Sunday, July 19, 2026 · 2:11 PM

The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Baltimore OriolesHouston Astros
BetMGM +100 -120
BetRivers -105 -113
DraftKings +100 -120
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel -104 -112
Hard Rock Bet -105 -115
Caesars +100 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Baltimore OriolesHouston Astros
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.9% 51.1%
Best book price incl. vig 50.0% 52.8%
Kalshi contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Polymarket contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Markets average 47.5% 52.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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