Every game called. Every call graded. In public.

Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs

MLB · Sunday, July 19, 2026 · 2:21 PM

The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 60.2%
Books consensus 60.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Minnesota TwinsChicago Cubs
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +135 -162
DraftKings +142 -172
Fanatics +140 -170
FanDuel +136 -162
Hard Rock Bet +135 -165
Caesars +143 -170

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Minnesota TwinsChicago Cubs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.8% 60.2%
Best book price incl. vig 40.8% 61.8%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 60.5%
Polymarket contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Markets average 40.0% 60.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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