Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels

MLB · Sunday, July 19, 2026 · 4:08 PM

The model's call

Detroit Tigers to win

Model confidence 57.8%

Books consensus 57.8%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Angels
BetMGM	-155	+125
BetRivers	-143	+120
DraftKings	-156	+129
Fanatics	-155	+130
FanDuel	-142	+120
Hard Rock Bet	-150	+125
Caesars	-155	+130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	57.8%	42.2%
Best book price incl. vig	58.7%	43.5%
Kalshi contract price	57.5%	41.5%
Polymarket contract price	58.5%	41.5%
Markets average	58.0%	41.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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