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San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners

MLB · Sunday, July 19, 2026 · 4:11 PM

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 61.4%
Books consensus 61.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book San Francisco GiantsSeattle Mariners
BetMGM +150 -185
BetRivers +155 -186
DraftKings +148 -179
Fanatics +145 -175
FanDuel +152 -180
Hard Rock Bet +145 -175
Caesars +143 -170

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue San Francisco GiantsSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.6% 61.4%
Best book price incl. vig 39.2% 63.0%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 61.5%
Polymarket contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Markets average 39.0% 61.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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