San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners
MLB · Sunday, July 19, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 3-6
The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 63.8%
Books consensus 63.8%
Result Seattle Mariners won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Markets average | 35.0% | 65.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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