Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays

All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 0-3

The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 59.0%
Books consensus 59.0%
Result Toronto Blue Jays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Kansas City RoyalsToronto Blue Jays
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +143 -167
DraftKings +142 -153
ESPN BET +137 -155
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +138 -148
Hard Rock Bet +140 -150
Caesars +140 -150

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Kansas City RoyalsToronto Blue Jays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.0% 59.0%
Best book price incl. vig 41.2% 59.7%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Polymarket contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Markets average 40.5% 59.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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