Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Atlanta Braves predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 5-6

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 53.4%
Books consensus 53.4%
Result Atlanta Braves won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves
BetMGM -130 +105
BetRivers -124 +104
DraftKings -120 +111
ESPN BET -120 +107
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -122 +112
Hard Rock Bet -120 +110
Caesars -121 +110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 53.4% 46.6%
Best book price incl. vig 54.5% 47.2%
Kalshi contract price 53.5% 46.5%
Polymarket contract price 54.5% 45.5%
Markets average 54.0% 46.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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