Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Atlanta Braves predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 27, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 0-1

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Atlanta Braves won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves
BetMGM +100 -120
BetRivers +104 -124
DraftKings +107 -115
ESPN BET +102 -115
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +104 -114
Hard Rock Bet +105 -115
Caesars +104 -114

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.8% 52.2%
Best book price incl. vig 48.3% 53.3%
Kalshi contract price 48.0% 52.0%
Polymarket contract price 48.5% 51.5%
Markets average 48.2% 51.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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