Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Detroit Tigers predictions

MLB · Friday, August 28, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 2-1

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 63.1%
Books consensus 63.1%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersDetroit Tigers
BetMGM -190 +155
BetRivers -195 +165
DraftKings -180 +168
ESPN BET -185 +162
Fanatics -190 +155
FanDuel -178 +164
Hard Rock Bet -180 +170
Caesars -183 +168

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Dodgers −1.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 8 books
Detroit Tigers covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 47.1% over · 8 books
Under 7.5 (3 scored)
Spread by book DodgersTigers
BetMGM −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
BetRivers −1.5 -112 +1.5 -109
DraftKings −1.5 -101 +1.5 -120
ESPN BET −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
Fanatics −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
FanDuel −1.5 -108 +1.5 -111
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +100 +1.5 -110
Caesars −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 +100 7.5 -120
BetRivers 7.5 +102 7.5 -122
DraftKings 7.5 +101 7.5 -122
ESPN BET 7.5 +105 7.5 -125
Fanatics 7.5 +105 7.5 -125
FanDuel 7.5 +110 7.5 -134
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 +115 7.5 -125
Caesars 7.5 +100 7.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersDetroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 63.1% 36.9%
Best book price incl. vig 64.0% 37.0%
Kalshi contract price 63.5% 36.5%
Polymarket contract price 62.5% 37.5%
Markets average 63.0% 37.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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