Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions

MLB · Friday, August 28, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 1-6

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 66.2%
Books consensus 66.2%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM +180 -220
BetRivers +188 -215
DraftKings +198 -213
ESPN BET +190 -217
Fanatics +180 -220
FanDuel +190 -205
Hard Rock Bet +190 -200
Caesars +193 -213

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Brewers −1.5
priced 47.8% to cover · 8 books
Milwaukee Brewers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 51.1% over · 8 books
Under 7.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book RangersBrewers
BetMGM +1.5 -120 −1.5 +100
BetRivers +1.5 -129 −1.5 +106
DraftKings +1.5 -117 −1.5 -103
ESPN BET +1.5 -125 −1.5 +105
Fanatics +1.5 -120 −1.5 +100
FanDuel +1.5 -118 −1.5 -102
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -115 −1.5 +105
Caesars +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
BetRivers 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
DraftKings 7.5 -118 7.5 -102
ESPN BET 7.5 -110 7.5 -110
Fanatics 7.5 -120 7.5 +100
FanDuel 7.5 -112 7.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -110 7.5 +100
Caesars 7.5 -120 7.5 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 33.8% 66.2%
Best book price incl. vig 33.6% 66.7%
Kalshi contract price 33.5% 66.5%
Polymarket contract price 33.5% 66.5%
Markets average 33.5% 66.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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