Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves

MLB · Friday, August 28, 2026 · 7:16 PM

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 65.8%
Books consensus 65.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Colorado RockiesAtlanta Braves
BetMGM +180 -220
BetRivers +180 -220
DraftKings +186 -229
ESPN BET +180 -215
Fanatics +180 -220
FanDuel +184 -220
Caesars +196 -216

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Colorado RockiesAtlanta Braves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 34.2% 65.8%
Best book price incl. vig 33.8% 68.3%
Kalshi contract price 32.5% 67.5%
Polymarket contract price 32.5% 67.5%
Markets average 32.5% 67.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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