Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Detroit Tigers predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 1:11 PM · Final: 1-2

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 62.9%
Books consensus 62.9%
Result Detroit Tigers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersDetroit Tigers
BetMGM -190 +154
BetRivers -186 +163
DraftKings -181 +168
ESPN BET -177 +155
Fanatics -190 +155
FanDuel -178 +164
Hard Rock Bet -180 +170
Caesars -180 +165

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Dodgers −1.5
priced 48.5% to cover · 8 books
Detroit Tigers covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7
priced 51.8% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 7.5
Under 7 (3 scored)
Spread by book DodgersTigers
BetMGM −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
BetRivers −1.5 -103 +1.5 -118
DraftKings −1.5 -103 +1.5 -117
ESPN BET −1.5 -105 +1.5 -120
Fanatics −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
FanDuel −1.5 -102 +1.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +100 +1.5 -110
Caesars −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7 -120 7 +100
BetRivers 7 -114 7 -105
DraftKings 7 -120 7 +100
ESPN BET 7.5 +115 7.5 -135
Fanatics 7 -120 7 +100
FanDuel 7 -118 7 -104
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 +115 7.5 -125
Caesars 7 -115 7 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersDetroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 62.9% 37.1%
Best book price incl. vig 63.9% 37.0%
Kalshi contract price 63.5% 36.5%
Polymarket contract price 62.5% 37.5%
Markets average 63.0% 37.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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