Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All Atlanta Braves predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 4:26 PM · Final: 1-2

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 68.1%
Books consensus 68.1%
Result Atlanta Braves won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesAtlanta Braves
BetMGM +200 -250
BetRivers +200 -230
DraftKings +215 -233
ESPN BET +203 -234
Fanatics +200 -245
FanDuel +205 -225
Hard Rock Bet +220 -230
Caesars +215 -245

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Braves −1.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 8 books
Colorado Rockies covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 52.8% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 9
Under 8.5 (3 scored)
Spread by book RockiesBraves
BetMGM +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
BetRivers +1.5 -115 −1.5 -106
DraftKings +1.5 -103 −1.5 -117
ESPN BET +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
Fanatics +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
FanDuel +1.5 -111 −1.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 +100 −1.5 -110
Caesars +1.5 +105 −1.5 -125
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8.5 -120 8.5 +100
BetRivers 9 +102 9 -122
DraftKings 9 +102 9 -122
ESPN BET 8.5 -125 8.5 +105
Fanatics 9 +100 9 -120
FanDuel 8.5 -124 8.5 +102
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -120 8.5 +110
Caesars 8.5 -115 8.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesAtlanta Braves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 31.9% 68.1%
Best book price incl. vig 31.2% 69.2%
Kalshi contract price 32.2% 67.8%
Polymarket contract price 31.5% 68.5%
Markets average 31.9% 68.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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