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Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 3-5

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 60.5%
Books consensus 60.5%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +145 -165
DraftKings +154 -166
ESPN BET +143 -162
Fanatics +140 -170
FanDuel +150 -164
Hard Rock Bet +150 -160
Caesars +148 -158

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Brewers −1.5
priced 42.6% to cover · 8 books
Milwaukee Brewers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8
priced 51.1% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 7.5
Push at 8
Spread by book RangersBrewers
BetMGM +1.5 -150 −1.5 +125
BetRivers +1.5 -159 −1.5 +130
DraftKings +1.5 -150 −1.5 +124
ESPN BET +1.5 -155 −1.5 +130
Fanatics +1.5 -150 −1.5 +125
FanDuel +1.5 -146 −1.5 +122
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -145 −1.5 +135
Caesars +1.5 -145 −1.5 +122
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -115 8 -105
BetRivers 8 -113 8 -107
DraftKings 8 -112 8 -108
ESPN BET 8.5 +105 8.5 -125
Fanatics 8 -115 8 -105
FanDuel 8 -115 8 -105
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 +110 8.5 -120
Caesars 8 -115 8 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.5% 60.5%
Best book price incl. vig 39.4% 61.2%
Kalshi contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Polymarket contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Markets average 38.5% 61.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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