Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All Atlanta Braves predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 30, 2026 · 1:36 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 68.5%
Books consensus 68.5%
Result Atlanta Braves won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesAtlanta Braves
BetMGM +190 -235
BetRivers +215 -250
DraftKings +217 -235
ESPN BET +213 -246
Fanatics +200 -245
FanDuel +205 -225
Hard Rock Bet +220 -230
Caesars +199 -219

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Braves −1.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 8 books
Colorado Rockies covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 48.9% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Under 8.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book RockiesBraves
BetMGM +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
BetRivers +1.5 -112 −1.5 -109
DraftKings +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
ESPN BET +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
Fanatics +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
FanDuel +1.5 -102 −1.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 +100 −1.5 -110
Caesars +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8.5 -105 8.5 -115
BetRivers 8 -118 8 -103
DraftKings 8.5 -107 8.5 -113
ESPN BET 8.5 -105 8.5 -115
Fanatics 8.5 +100 8.5 -120
FanDuel 8.5 -105 8.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 +100 8.5 -110
Caesars 8.5 -105 8.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesAtlanta Braves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 31.5% 68.5%
Best book price incl. vig 31.2% 68.7%
Kalshi contract price 31.5% 68.5%
Polymarket contract price 31.5% 68.5%
Markets average 31.5% 68.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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