Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Detroit Tigers predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 30, 2026 · 2:37 PM · Final: 6-1

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 58.9%
Books consensus 58.9%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersDetroit Tigers
BetMGM -160 +135
BetRivers -157 +138
DraftKings -145 +135
ESPN BET -155 +137
Fanatics -155 +130
FanDuel -148 +138
Hard Rock Bet -150 +140
Caesars -149 +139

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Dodgers −1.5
priced 45.5% to cover · 8 books
Los Angeles Dodgers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 47.8% over · 8 books
Under 7.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book DodgersTigers
BetMGM −1.5 +110 +1.5 -135
BetRivers −1.5 +110 +1.5 -132
DraftKings −1.5 +110 +1.5 -133
ESPN BET −1.5 +110 +1.5 -130
Fanatics −1.5 +110 +1.5 -135
FanDuel −1.5 +114 +1.5 -137
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +115 +1.5 -125
Caesars −1.5 +110 +1.5 -130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 +100 7.5 -120
BetRivers 7.5 -105 7.5 -115
DraftKings 7.5 +100 7.5 -121
ESPN BET 7.5 +100 7.5 -120
Fanatics 7.5 +100 7.5 -120
FanDuel 7.5 +100 7.5 -122
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 +105 7.5 -115
Caesars 7.5 +100 7.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersDetroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 58.9% 41.1%
Best book price incl. vig 59.2% 41.7%
Kalshi contract price 58.9% 41.1%
Polymarket contract price 58.5% 41.5%
Markets average 58.7% 41.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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