Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 30, 2026 · 2:12 PM · Final: 7-4

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 59.4%
Books consensus 59.4%
Result Texas Rangers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM +135 -165
BetRivers +138 -159
DraftKings +142 -153
ESPN BET +143 -162
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +142 -154
Hard Rock Bet +145 -155
Caesars +147 -157

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Brewers −1.5
priced 42.0% to cover · 8 books
Texas Rangers covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 50.5% over · 8 books
Over 8.5 (11 scored)
Spread by book RangersBrewers
BetMGM +1.5 -155 −1.5 +125
BetRivers +1.5 -159 −1.5 +130
DraftKings +1.5 -149 −1.5 +123
ESPN BET +1.5 -155 −1.5 +130
Fanatics +1.5 -145 −1.5 +120
FanDuel +1.5 -160 −1.5 +132
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -145 −1.5 +135
Caesars +1.5 -145 −1.5 +122
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8.5 -110 8.5 -110
BetRivers 8.5 -115 8.5 -105
DraftKings 8.5 -114 8.5 -105
ESPN BET 8.5 -110 8.5 -110
Fanatics 8.5 -115 8.5 -105
FanDuel 8.5 -110 8.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -110 8.5 +100
Caesars 8.5 -110 8.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.6% 59.4%
Best book price incl. vig 40.5% 60.5%
Kalshi contract price 39.1% 60.9%
Polymarket contract price 39.5% 60.5%
Markets average 39.3% 60.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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