Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 6-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| BetRivers | +102 | -117 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| ESPN BET | -102 | -111 |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -103 | -107 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -195 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +148 | +1.5 -180 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -180 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -170 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +152 | +1.5 -184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +162 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9.5 -118 | 9.5 -102 |
| BetRivers | 9.5 -118 | 9.5 -103 |
| DraftKings | 10 -104 | 10 -116 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 -120 | 9.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 10 -105 | 10 -115 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 -122 | 9.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 -120 | 9.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 9.5 -120 | 9.5 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 49.5% | 51.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Markets average | 49.0% | 51.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.