Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 13-8

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 63.7%
Books consensus 63.7%
Result St. Louis Cardinals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +165 -200
BetRivers +175 -205
DraftKings +163 -198
ESPN BET +173 -198
Fanatics +160 -195
FanDuel +164 -196
Hard Rock Bet +160 -195
Caesars +175 -195

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Dodgers −1.5
priced 46.8% to cover · 8 books
St. Louis Cardinals covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 52.8% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 9
Over 8.5 (21 scored)
Spread by book CardinalsDodgers
BetMGM +1.5 -125 −1.5 +105
BetRivers +1.5 -125 −1.5 +104
DraftKings +1.5 -125 −1.5 +103
ESPN BET +1.5 -130 −1.5 +110
Fanatics +1.5 -125 −1.5 +105
FanDuel +1.5 -132 −1.5 +110
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -125 −1.5 +110
Caesars +1.5 -125 −1.5 +105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8.5 -120 8.5 +100
BetRivers 9 -103 9 -118
DraftKings 9 -101 9 -120
ESPN BET 8.5 -125 8.5 +105
Fanatics 9 +100 9 -120
FanDuel 8.5 -122 8.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -125 8.5 +105
Caesars 9 +100 9 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.3% 63.7%
Best book price incl. vig 36.4% 66.1%
Kalshi contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Polymarket contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Markets average 35.5% 64.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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