Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 8-6

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 72.3%
Books consensus 72.3%
Result St. Louis Cardinals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +240 -300
BetRivers +245 -286
DraftKings +243 -306
ESPN BET +253 -295
Fanatics +240 -300
FanDuel +250 -310
Hard Rock Bet +250 -300
Caesars +270 -320

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Dodgers −1.5
priced 55.1% to cover · 8 books
St. Louis Cardinals covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 7.5
Over 8 (14 scored)
Spread by book CardinalsDodgers
BetMGM +1.5 +115 −1.5 -140
BetRivers +1.5 +104 −1.5 -125
DraftKings +1.5 +114 −1.5 -137
ESPN BET +1.5 +120 −1.5 -145
Fanatics +1.5 +110 −1.5 -135
FanDuel +1.5 +112 −1.5 -134
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 +110 −1.5 -135
Caesars +1.5 +118 −1.5 -140
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -110 8 -110
BetRivers 8 -105 8 -114
DraftKings 8 -112 8 -108
ESPN BET 7.5 -125 7.5 +105
Fanatics 8 -110 8 -110
FanDuel 7.5 -124 7.5 +102
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -125 7.5 +105
Caesars 8 -110 8 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 27.7% 72.3%
Best book price incl. vig 27.0% 74.1%
Kalshi contract price 28.2% 71.8%
Polymarket contract price 28.5% 71.5%
Markets average 28.3% 71.6%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record