Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions
MLB · Thursday, September 3, 2026 · 7:40 PM · Final: 3-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | -108 | -110 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -125 |
| ESPN BET | +107 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +110 | -121 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -210 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -175 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +167 | +1.5 -204 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -188 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -195 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9.5 +100 | 9.5 -130 |
| BetRivers | 9 -127 | 9 -112 |
| DraftKings | 9 -119 | 9 -101 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +105 | 9.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
| FanDuel | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -130 |
| Caesars | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.