Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Thursday, September 3, 2026 · 10:10 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 71.7%
Books consensus 71.7%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +230 -295
BetRivers +245 -305
DraftKings +237 -298
ESPN BET +247 -287
Fanatics +230 -285
FanDuel +240 -295
Hard Rock Bet +240 -300
Caesars +240 -280

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Dodgers −1.5
priced 54.8% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
St. Louis Cardinals covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 48.2% over · 8 books
Under 7.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book CardinalsDodgers
BetMGM +1.5 +110 −1.5 -135
BetRivers +2 -117 −2 -105
DraftKings +1.5 +114 −1.5 -137
ESPN BET +1.5 +110 −1.5 -130
Fanatics +1.5 +110 −1.5 -135
FanDuel +1.5 +112 −1.5 -134
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 +115 −1.5 -135
Caesars +1.5 +115 −1.5 -135
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 -105 7.5 -115
BetRivers 7.5 -106 7.5 -115
DraftKings 7.5 +101 7.5 -122
ESPN BET 7.5 +100 7.5 -120
Fanatics 7.5 +100 7.5 -120
FanDuel 7.5 -104 7.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -105 7.5 -115
Caesars 7.5 +100 7.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 28.3% 71.7%
Best book price incl. vig 28.8% 73.7%
Kalshi contract price 28.2% 71.8%
Polymarket contract price 28.5% 71.5%
Markets average 28.3% 71.6%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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