Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Chicago White Sox predictions
MLB · Friday, September 4, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 1-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +107 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| ESPN BET | +111 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +115 | -125 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Twins | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -210 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -182 | −1.5 +148 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -189 | −1.5 +155 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -194 | −1.5 +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +160 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| BetRivers | 9 -129 | 9 -110 |
| DraftKings | 9 -118 | 9 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
| FanDuel | 9 -114 | 9 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -130 |
| Caesars | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.5% | 55.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 47.0% | 53.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.