Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons

All Boston Celtics predictions · All Detroit Pistons predictions

NBA · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 3:07 PM · Final: 113-121

The model's call
Boston Celtics to win
Model confidence 52.6%
Books consensus 52.6%
Result Detroit Pistons won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston CelticsDetroit Pistons
BetMGM -115 +105
BetRivers -125 +100
DraftKings -125 +105
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -120 +102
Hard Rock Bet -125 +105
Novig -113 +111
Caesars -120 +100

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Celtics −1.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Pistons −1.5
Detroit Pistons covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 220.5
priced 51.1% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 221.5
Over 220.5 (234 scored)
Spread by book CelticsPistons
BetMGM −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
BetRivers −1.5 -110 +1.5 -113
DraftKings −1.5 -112 +1.5 -108
ESPN BET −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
Fanatics −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
FanDuel −1.5 -112 +1.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
Caesars −2.5 +105 +2.5 -125
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 220.5 -115 220.5 -105
BetRivers 221.5 -115 221.5 -108
DraftKings 220.5 -115 220.5 -105
ESPN BET 220.5 -115 220.5 -105
Fanatics 221 -110 221 -110
FanDuel 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 220.5 -115 220.5 -105
Caesars 221 -110 221 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston CelticsDetroit Pistons
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.6% 47.4%
Best book price incl. vig 53.1% 47.4%
Kalshi contract price 53.5% 46.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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