Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks

All Philadelphia 76ers predictions · All New York Knicks predictions

NBA · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 7:18 PM · Final: 106-100

The model's call
New York Knicks to win
Model confidence 60.9%
Books consensus 60.9%
Result Philadelphia 76ers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Philadelphia 76ersNew York Knicks
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +150 -182
DraftKings +145 -175
ESPN BET +145 -170
Fanatics +150 -180
FanDuel +142 -168
Hard Rock Bet +145 -175
Novig +163 -167
Caesars +140 -170

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Knicks −4.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Knicks −5.5
Philadelphia 76ers covered +4.5
Total · closing
O/U 231.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Under 231.5 (206 scored)
Spread by book 76ersKnicks
BetMGM +4.5 -105 −4.5 -105
BetRivers +4.5 -114 −4.5 -107
DraftKings +4.5 -112 −4.5 -108
ESPN BET +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
Fanatics +4.5 -105 −4.5 -115
FanDuel +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +4.5 -110 −4.5 -110
Caesars +5 -110 −5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
BetRivers 232.5 -107 232.5 -114
DraftKings 231.5 -108 231.5 -112
ESPN BET 231.5 -105 231.5 -115
Fanatics 232 -110 232 -110
FanDuel 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
Caesars 232.5 -110 232.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Philadelphia 76ersNew York Knicks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.1% 60.9%
Best book price incl. vig 38.0% 62.5%
Kalshi contract price 38.5% 61.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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