Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs

All Oklahoma City Thunder predictions · All San Antonio Spurs predictions

NBA · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · 9:52 PM · Final: 116-104

The model's call
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Result Oklahoma City Thunder won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Oklahoma City ThunderSan Antonio Spurs
BetMGM -115 +105
BetRivers -114 -106
DraftKings -118 -102
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -108 -108
Hard Rock Bet -115 -105
Novig -102 +100
Caesars -115 -105

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Thunder −1.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Spurs −1.5
Oklahoma City Thunder covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 229.5
priced 49.8% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 230.5
Under 229.5 (220 scored)
Spread by book ThunderSpurs
BetMGM −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
BetRivers +0.5 -114 −0.5 -107
DraftKings −1.5 -108 +1.5 -112
ESPN BET −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
Fanatics −1 -110 +1 -110
FanDuel −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
Caesars −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 230.5 -105 230.5 -115
BetRivers 229.5 -108 229.5 -113
DraftKings 229.5 -108 229.5 -112
ESPN BET 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
Fanatics 230 -110 230 -110
FanDuel 230.5 -102 230.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet 229.5 -110 229.5 -110
Caesars 230 -110 230 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Oklahoma City ThunderSan Antonio Spurs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.1% 48.9%
Best book price incl. vig 50.5% 48.8%
Kalshi contract price 50.5% 49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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