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Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers

All Phoenix Suns predictions · All Portland Trail Blazers predictions

NBA · Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · 10:14 PM · Final: 83-124

The model's call
Portland Trail Blazers to win
Model confidence 59.4%
Books consensus 59.4%
Result Portland Trail Blazers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Phoenix SunsPortland Trail Blazers
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +135 -165
DraftKings +130 -155
ESPN BET +140 -165
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +138 -164
Hard Rock Bet +135 -165
Novig +156 -160
Caesars +140 -165

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Trail Blazers −3.5
priced 50.4% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Trail Blazers −4.5
Portland Trail Blazers covered −3.5
Total · closing
O/U 232.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 235.5
Under 232.5 (207 scored)
Spread by book SunsTrail Blazers
BetMGM +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
BetRivers +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
DraftKings +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
ESPN BET +4.5 -115 −4.5 -105
Fanatics +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
FanDuel +3.5 -106 −3.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
Caesars +4 -110 −4 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
BetRivers 233.5 -109 233.5 -112
DraftKings 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
ESPN BET 232.5 -115 232.5 -105
Fanatics 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
FanDuel 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 231.5 -115 231.5 +100
Caesars 233 -105 233 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Phoenix SunsPortland Trail Blazers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.6% 59.4%
Best book price incl. vig 39.1% 60.8%
Kalshi contract price 38.5% 61.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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