Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards

All Charlotte Hornets predictions · All Washington Wizards predictions

NBA · Friday, October 30, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Charlotte Hornets to win
Model confidence 50.7%
Books consensus 50.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Charlotte HornetsWashington Wizards
BetMGM -115 -105
BetRivers -109 -110
DraftKings -115 -105
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -106 -110
Hard Rock Bet -110 -110
Novig -104 +102
Caesars -110 -110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Hornets −1.5
priced 48.6% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
Total
O/U 219.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 223.5
Spread by book HornetsWizards
BetMGM −1.5 -102 +1.5 -118
BetRivers +0.5 -110 −0.5 -112
DraftKings −1.5 -102 +1.5 -118
ESPN BET −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
Fanatics −1 -110 +1 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -120 −1.5 -102
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
Caesars −1 -110 +1 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 219.5 -110 219.5 -110
BetRivers 219.5 -113 219.5 -108
DraftKings 218.5 -112 218.5 -108
ESPN BET 218.5 -110 218.5 -110
Fanatics 219.5 -110 219.5 -110
FanDuel 219.5 -112 219.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 219.5 -110 219.5 -110
Caesars 219 -105 219 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Charlotte HornetsWashington Wizards
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 50.7% 49.3%
Best book price incl. vig 51.0% 49.5%
Kalshi contract price 49.5% 50.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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