Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics

All Chicago Bulls predictions · All Boston Celtics predictions

NBA · Friday, October 30, 2026 · 7:40 PM

The model's call
Boston Celtics to win
Model confidence 86.3%
Books consensus 86.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Chicago BullsBoston Celtics
BetMGM +575 -900
BetRivers +540 -835
DraftKings +600 -900
ESPN BET +600 -1000
Fanatics +600 -900
FanDuel +610 -900
Hard Rock Bet +650 -950
Novig +641 -700
Caesars +600 -900

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Celtics −14.5
priced 50.5% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened Celtics −15.5
Total
O/U 235.5
priced 50.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 232.5
Spread by book BullsCeltics
BetMGM +14.5 -110 −14.5 -110
BetRivers +15.5 -115 −15.5 -106
DraftKings +14.5 -105 −14.5 -115
ESPN BET +14.5 -110 −14.5 -110
Fanatics +15 -110 −15 -110
FanDuel +15.5 -118 −15.5 -104
Hard Rock Bet +14.5 -105 −14.5 -115
Caesars +15 -110 −15 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 234.5 -115 234.5 -105
BetRivers 236.5 -107 236.5 -114
DraftKings 235.5 -110 235.5 -110
ESPN BET 236.5 -110 236.5 -110
Fanatics 235.5 -110 235.5 -110
FanDuel 234.5 -120 234.5 -102
Hard Rock Bet 235.5 -110 235.5 -110
Caesars 235.5 -110 235.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Chicago BullsBoston Celtics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 13.7% 86.3%
Best book price incl. vig 13.3% 87.5%
Kalshi contract price 12.5% 87.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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