Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets

All Detroit Pistons predictions · All Brooklyn Nets predictions

NBA · Friday, October 30, 2026 · 7:40 PM

The model's call
Detroit Pistons to win
Model confidence 73.4%
Books consensus 73.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Detroit PistonsBrooklyn Nets
BetMGM -325 +260
BetRivers -335 +255
DraftKings -325 +260
ESPN BET -320 +260
Fanatics -320 +250
FanDuel -330 +265
Hard Rock Bet -350 +275
Novig -292 +277
Caesars -320 +250

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Pistons −8.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 8 books
opened Pistons −7.5
Total
O/U 221.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 225.5
Spread by book PistonsNets
BetMGM −8.5 -102 +8.5 -118
BetRivers −8.5 -107 +8.5 -114
DraftKings −8.5 -105 +8.5 -115
ESPN BET −8.5 -105 +8.5 -115
Fanatics −8.5 -105 +8.5 -115
FanDuel −8.5 -110 +8.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet −8.5 -110 +8.5 -110
Caesars −8.5 -105 +8.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
BetRivers 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
DraftKings 222.5 -108 222.5 -112
ESPN BET 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
Fanatics 221 -110 221 -110
FanDuel 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
Caesars 221 -105 221 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Detroit PistonsBrooklyn Nets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 73.4% 26.7%
Best book price incl. vig 74.5% 26.5%
Kalshi contract price 73.2% 26.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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