Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers

All New York Knicks predictions · All Philadelphia 76ers predictions

NBA · Friday, October 30, 2026 · 7:40 PM

The model's call
New York Knicks to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book New York KnicksPhiladelphia 76ers
BetMGM -125 +105
BetRivers -132 +110
DraftKings -125 +105
ESPN BET -125 +105
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -126 +108
Hard Rock Bet -125 +105
Novig -115 +111
Caesars -125 +105

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Knicks −1.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 8 books
opened 76ers −1.5
Total
O/U 227.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 230.5
Spread by book Knicks76ers
BetMGM −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
BetRivers −1.5 -117 +1.5 -105
DraftKings −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
ESPN BET −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
Fanatics −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
FanDuel −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
Caesars −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
BetRivers 227.5 -112 227.5 -109
DraftKings 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
ESPN BET 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
Fanatics 227 -110 227 -110
FanDuel 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 227.5 -110 227.5 -110
Caesars 227 -110 227 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue New York KnicksPhiladelphia 76ers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 53.2% 46.8%
Best book price incl. vig 53.5% 47.4%
Kalshi contract price 53.3% 46.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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