Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks

All Houston Rockets predictions · All Dallas Mavericks predictions

NBA · Friday, October 30, 2026 · 8:10 PM

The model's call
Houston Rockets to win
Model confidence 67.4%
Books consensus 67.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Houston RocketsDallas Mavericks
BetMGM -235 +195
BetRivers -215 +175
DraftKings -238 +195
ESPN BET -240 +200
Fanatics -235 +190
FanDuel -230 +190
Hard Rock Bet -240 +195
Novig -212 +208
Caesars -225 +185

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Rockets −6.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
opened Rockets −5.5
Total
O/U 223.5
priced 50.0% over · 3 books, 5 on another number
opened 227.5
Spread by book RocketsMavericks
BetMGM −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
BetRivers −6.5 -107 +6.5 -114
DraftKings −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
ESPN BET −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
Fanatics −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
FanDuel −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
Caesars −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 224.5 -105 224.5 -115
BetRivers 224.5 -106 224.5 -115
DraftKings 223.5 -105 223.5 -115
ESPN BET 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
Fanatics 224 -110 224 -110
FanDuel 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 223.5 -115 223.5 -105
Caesars 224 -110 224 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Houston RocketsDallas Mavericks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 67.4% 32.6%
Best book price incl. vig 67.9% 32.5%
Kalshi contract price 67.8% 32.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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