Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns

All Denver Nuggets predictions · All Phoenix Suns predictions

NBA · Friday, October 30, 2026 · 10:10 PM

The model's call
Denver Nuggets to win
Model confidence 61.6%
Books consensus 61.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Denver NuggetsPhoenix Suns
BetMGM -185 +150
BetRivers -175 +140
DraftKings -180 +150
ESPN BET -175 +150
Fanatics -175 +145
FanDuel -180 +152
Hard Rock Bet -185 +150
Novig -163 +160
Caesars -175 +148

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Nuggets −4.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
Total
O/U 231.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Spread by book NuggetsSuns
BetMGM −4.5 -105 +4.5 -115
BetRivers −4.5 -107 +4.5 -114
DraftKings −4.5 -105 +4.5 -115
ESPN BET −4.5 -105 +4.5 -115
Fanatics −4 -110 +4 -110
FanDuel −4.5 -108 +4.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet −4.5 -105 +4.5 -115
Caesars −4 -110 +4 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
BetRivers 231.5 -114 231.5 -107
DraftKings 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
ESPN BET 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
Fanatics 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
FanDuel 231.5 -106 231.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet 231.5 -110 231.5 -110
Caesars 231.5 -110 231.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Denver NuggetsPhoenix Suns
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 61.6% 38.4%
Best book price incl. vig 62.0% 38.5%
Kalshi contract price 62.1% 37.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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