Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All Colorado Rockies predictions

MLB · Sunday, September 6, 2026 · 3:10 PM · Final: 10-8

The model's call
St. Louis Cardinals to win
Model confidence 55.6%
Books consensus 55.6%
Result St. Louis Cardinals won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsColorado Rockies
BetMGM -140 +115
BetRivers -137 +120
DraftKings -136 +113
ESPN BET -134 +118
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -138 +118
Hard Rock Bet -135 +110
Caesars -133 +123

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Cardinals −1.5
priced 45.7% to cover · 8 books
St. Louis Cardinals covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 11
priced 51.1% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Over 11 (18 scored)
Spread by book CardinalsRockies
BetMGM −1.5 +110 +1.5 -135
BetRivers −1.5 +106 +1.5 -129
DraftKings −1.5 +112 +1.5 -135
ESPN BET −1.5 +110 +1.5 -130
Fanatics −1.5 +110 +1.5 -135
FanDuel −1.5 +105 +1.5 -126
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +110 +1.5 -130
Caesars −1.5 +110 +1.5 -130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 11 -115 11 -105
BetRivers 11 -104 11 -115
DraftKings 11 -113 11 -106
ESPN BET 11.5 +115 11.5 -135
Fanatics 11 -115 11 -105
FanDuel 11 -115 11 -105
Hard Rock Bet 11.5 +105 11.5 -125
Caesars 11 -120 11 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsColorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 55.6% 44.4%
Best book price incl. vig 56.5% 44.8%
Kalshi contract price 55.5% 44.5%
Polymarket contract price 55.5% 44.5%
Markets average 55.5% 44.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record