Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals
All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions
MLB · Monday, September 7, 2026 · 2:11 PM · Final: 5-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| BetRivers | -103 | -113 |
| DraftKings | -107 | -112 |
| ESPN BET | -104 | -108 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -105 | -105 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Diamondbacks | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -190 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +148 | +1.5 -180 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -180 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +146 | +1.5 -178 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9.5 +100 | 9.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | 9 -112 | 9 -108 |
| DraftKings | 9 -122 | 9 +101 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +105 | 9.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 9.5 +100 | 9.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 +102 | 9.5 -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +100 | 9.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 9 -125 | 9 +105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.7% | 51.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Markets average | 49.5% | 50.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.