American League at National League
All American League predictions · All National League predictions
MLB · Tuesday, July 14, 2026 · 8:01 PM · Final: 4-0
The model's call
National League to win
Model confidence 55.3%
Books consensus 55.3%
Result American League won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | American League | National League |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +115 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +116 | -134 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
League −1.5
priced 38.2% to cover · 4 books
American League covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 48.5% over · 3 books, 1 on another number
Under 8.5 (4 scored)
| Spread by book | League | League |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +145 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -184 | −1.5 +152 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -178 | −1.5 +150 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -102 | 8.5 -118 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -104 | 8.5 -118 |
| Caesars | 8 -120 | 8 +100 |
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