San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
All San Diego Padres predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions
MLB · Friday, September 11, 2026 · 10:16 PM · Final: 7-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -165 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -163 | +134 |
| ESPN BET | -159 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -165 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -156 | +132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -155 | +130 |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +105 | +1.5 -125 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -134 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +108 | +1.5 -131 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -135 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +114 | +1.5 -134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -135 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -130 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -112 | 7.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -117 | 7.5 -103 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 60.3% | 41.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Markets average | 59.2% | 40.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.