Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins
MLB · Friday, September 11, 2026 · 7:11 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 65.1%
Books consensus 65.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Los Angeles Dodgers | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -210 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -210 | +175 |
| DraftKings | -209 | +171 |
| ESPN BET | -215 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -215 | +175 |
| FanDuel | -210 | +176 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -220 | +175 |
| Caesars | -210 | +175 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Los Angeles Dodgers | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 67.6% | 35.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| Markets average | 67.3% | 32.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.