San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
All San Diego Padres predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 4:06 PM · Final: 7-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -190 | +155 |
| BetRivers | -167 | +138 |
| DraftKings | -192 | +158 |
| ESPN BET | -185 | +155 |
| Fanatics | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -188 | +158 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -190 | +160 |
| Caesars | -190 | +158 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 -110 | +1.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +102 | +1.5 -125 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 -108 | +1.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 -110 | +1.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 -111 | +1.5 -108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 -110 | +1.5 -110 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -115 | +1.5 -105 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -102 | 8 -118 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -117 | 7.5 -105 |
| DraftKings | 8 -104 | 8 -116 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -122 | 7.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 62.5% | 38.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| Markets average | 63.0% | 37.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.