Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins
All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 3-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Los Angeles Dodgers | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -182 | +155 |
| DraftKings | -168 | +138 |
| ESPN BET | -170 | +145 |
| Fanatics | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -172 | +144 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 -108 | +1.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +104 | +1.5 -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| BetRivers | 8 -121 | 8 -118 |
| DraftKings | 8 -105 | 8 -114 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -124 | 7.5 +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Los Angeles Dodgers | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 62.3% | 39.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Markets average | 61.0% | 39.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.