Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins
All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 4:11 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 63.6%
Books consensus 63.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Los Angeles Dodgers | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -200 | +165 |
| DraftKings | -197 | +161 |
| ESPN BET | -195 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -196 | +164 |
| Caesars | -195 | +162 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Los Angeles Dodgers | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 66.1% | 37.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| Markets average | 63.0% | 37.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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