Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians
MLB · Friday, July 17, 2026 · 7:11 PM
The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +108 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +104 | -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 47.6% | 55.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.