Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All Detroit Tigers predictions

MLB · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 12:11 PM · Final: 1-8

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 62.4%
Books consensus 62.4%
Result Detroit Tigers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesDetroit Tigers
BetMGM +155 -190
BetRivers +155 -186
DraftKings +154 -187
ESPN BET +155 -185
Fanatics +155 -190
FanDuel +154 -184
Hard Rock Bet +145 -180
Caesars +158 -190

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Tigers −1.5
priced 45.1% to cover · 8 books
Detroit Tigers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9
priced 48.9% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 8.5
Push at 9
Spread by book RockiesTigers
BetMGM +1.5 -130 −1.5 +110
BetRivers +1.5 -134 −1.5 +110
DraftKings +1.5 -136 −1.5 +113
ESPN BET +1.5 -145 −1.5 +120
Fanatics +1.5 -135 −1.5 +110
FanDuel +1.5 -137 −1.5 +114
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -140 −1.5 +120
Caesars +1.5 -130 −1.5 +110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9 +100 9 -120
BetRivers 9 -112 9 -129
DraftKings 9 -105 9 -114
ESPN BET 8.5 -130 8.5 +110
Fanatics 9 -105 9 -115
FanDuel 8.5 -128 8.5 +104
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -130 8.5 +105
Caesars 9 -105 9 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesDetroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.6% 62.4%
Best book price incl. vig 38.8% 64.3%
Kalshi contract price 37.5% 62.5%
Polymarket contract price 37.5% 62.5%
Markets average 37.5% 62.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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