San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals

MLB · Friday, July 17, 2026 · 8:11 PM

The model's call

San Diego Padres to win

Model confidence 51.1%

Books consensus 51.1%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	San Diego Padres	Kansas City Royals
BetMGM	-115	-105
BetRivers	-109	-108
DraftKings	-114	-105
ESPN BET	-115	-105
Fanatics	-115	-105
FanDuel	-112	-104
Hard Rock Bet	-115	-105
Caesars	-115	-105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	San Diego Padres	Kansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	51.1%	48.9%
Best book price incl. vig	52.2%	51.0%
Polymarket contract price	50.5%	49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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