San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions
MLB · Friday, July 17, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 6-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -117 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +104 |
| ESPN BET | -125 | +105 |
| Fanatics | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -120 | +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +125 | +1.5 -150 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +133 | +1.5 -162 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +124 | +1.5 -149 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -160 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +125 | +1.5 -150 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +126 | +1.5 -152 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -155 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +122 | +1.5 -145 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 10 -105 | 10 -115 |
| BetRivers | 10 -118 | 10 -103 |
| DraftKings | 10 -110 | 10 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 10.5 +105 | 10.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 10 -110 | 10 -110 |
| FanDuel | 10 -110 | 10 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 -125 | 9.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 10 -110 | 10 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 53.9% | 48.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.